Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have improved over the past month, according to polling expert Nate Silver, while Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to find a “second gear.”

The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed on Wednesday that his model of the presidential race currently indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College in November, while Harris’ chances are 41.6%.

“Trump’s odds of winning are at their highest since July 30,” Silver wrote in his latest election prediction bulletin. “And the odds of Harris splitting the Electoral College vote have risen to nearly 18 percent.”

Silver’s Model predicts Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the popular vote — which has no bearing on the winner of the race — but Trump will win 274 Electoral College votes, surpassing the vice president’s estimated 263 votes.

To win the presidential election you need two hundred seventy Electoral College votes.

“There was a surge in enthusiasm after Harris resigned for Biden, but that could have happened regardless,” Silver noted in X.

The pollster also argued that Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate against Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shaprio, and leaving most of President Biden’s campaign team in place, may have been a mistake.

“I thought the convention speech was good, but the omission of Shapiro is starting to look bad, and they haven’t really found a second gear after Hot Brat Summer,” he continued.

In a separate tweet, Silver wrote, “I think I would have more faith in Harris’ success if she hadn’t rehired so many Biden people.”

Overall, Silver’s model still assumes the race will be “random” between the two candidates.

His analysis is based on an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Labor Day that showed Harris failed to gain the support she expected following last month’s Democratic National Convention, leaving her 2024 election prospects essentially unchanged.

Trump and Harris are virtually tied in two key swing states. A CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday showed Trump and Harris each with 47 percent support in Pennsylvania, and the vice president is ahead of the former president by 48 percent to 47 percent in Georgia.