In a dramatic shift in the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a significant increase in support among low-income voters after she surged to the top of the Democratic ticket. A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found Harris now has a significant lead over former President Donald Trump among voters earning less than $20,000 a year. That group now supports Harris 58% compared with Trump’s 35%, a significant shift from earlier this year, when Trump had a narrow lead.

Daigre Thomas, a Connecticut health care worker, embodies that change. “We don’t have to tell her anything. She knows what’s going on,” Thomas said, expressing newfound confidence in Harris’ commitment to addressing the needs of low-income Americans. Thomas’s endorsement underscores Harris’ growing appeal to that demographic, fueled in part by her promises to expand affordable housing and boost the child care tax credit.

Harris’s rise also marks a broader demographic shift. The poll shows her approval rating among black voters has risen 17 percentage points since June, now at 64%. Similarly, Harris has gained significant popularity among middle-income voters, those earning less than $50,000, where she leads Trump by 47% to 44%.

The Democratic National Convention clearly played a key role in raising Harris’ profile, with her approval rating among low-income voters rising from 37% in June to 53% in August. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, attributes the increase to Harris’ increased visibility and strategic use of social media, which has resonated particularly well with younger voters.

Despite those gains, Harris’ national lead is modest. The Guardian poll has her ahead of Trump by about two points. But that improvement is less pronounced compared with the margins previous Democratic candidates have had at this stage. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by five points, while Joe Biden had a 6.3-point lead in 2020.

But the state-level data paints a more nuanced picture. Harris has made significant gains in key swing states like Georgia and Arizona, where she has gained more than four points since Biden conceded. That progress has been attributed to her consolidation of the Democratic base and increased support among voters of color and young people.

Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, notes the critical importance of swing state results. “We’re talking about a couple of points that are critical either way,” he said, emphasizing the narrow margins that could decide the election.

Harris’ recent gains are tempered by the ongoing challenge of swing-state dynamics. Polls show Harris and Trump within two points of each other in several key states, underscoring a tight race. Historical polling errors from previous elections in which Trump has outperformed projections add to the uncertainty.

Josh Clinton of the American Association for Public Opinion Research highlights the challenges in polling accuracy, noting significant errors in past elections. Adjustments made in 2020, such as weighting educational attainment, improved accuracy, but the unique momentum of Trump’s candidacy continues to pose challenges.

For now, the electoral map remains highly competitive. The website 270toWin classifies seven states as “toss-ups,” with Harris needing to secure three of the Democratic-leaning swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — to secure the critical 270 electoral votes. Trump, conversely, would need to flip at least two states currently leaning Democratic to win.

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